The absence of federal electric vehicle incentives in the House-ed budget reconciliation bill has some analysts alarmed that it will threaten jobs and slow EV adoption.
But in Dallas-Fort Worth, the data paints a murkier picture, with federal incentives appearing to have limited impact on adoption rates, according to transportation planners.
Overall, nationwide enthusiasm for EVs has dropped to its lowest since 2019, according to a survey from AAA, which may translate into lower sales. And the “big, beautiful bill,” as President Donald Trump has called it, includes steep cuts to Biden-era tax credits aimed at incentivizing EV adoption.
Those include incentives for both car manufacturers and consumers, like a $7,500 new EV credit, and $4,000 for used electric vehicle purchases intended to make them more accessible for middle-class buyers.
Electric vehicles have gotten caught in the crosshairs of environmental policy and politics, but proponents of the credits have said they’re about more than pushing a green initiative.
Tax credits have helped drive American manufacturing and jobs, giving the U.S. a boost in the global EV race. There are more than 20,000 EV jobs and over $2 billion in announced EV investments in Texas, according to data from the Bluegreen Alliance Foundation, which advocates for green jobs.
The Zero Emission Transportation Association, which represents major EV automakers like Rivian, Tesla and Lucid, warned last fall that a pullback of incentives would reverse job gains in several states, and diminish manufacturing investments.
“Our concern here is the jobs that we lose, those are short-term impacts, but they also potentially are much longer-term because if the rest of the world is sucking in these people and building this stuff, they’re going to get way ahead,” said Ben Prochazka, executive director of the Electrification Coalition, a Washington, D.C.-based nonpartisan advocacy group.
Though more incentive-eligible EVs have come on the market recently, some groups have long criticized the credits for being hard to get.
Only EVs with batteries built in North America ― and with a majority of the minerals they contain mined or recycled on the continent ― qualify for the full credit. That has automatically disqualified many EVs on the market.
Couples with incomes above $300,000 or single people with incomes of $150,000 or more don’t qualify, nor do cars with sticker prices above $55,000 and trucks and SUVs above $80,000.
Used vehicles do not have to be assembled in the U.S., but must sell for $25,000 or less.
EV buyers ‘have made up their mind’
On the consumer side, North Texas transportation planners say their data shows the incentives have had little impact on demand.
Registration data going back to 2021 does not show a noticeable change in the EV adoption trend when incentives came into play, according to the North Central Texas Council of Governments.
“I’m — hopefully accurately — optimistic that it’s not really going to slow anything down," said Lori Clark, senior program manager of the Clean Fleet and Energy Program at NCTCOG. “I think people who are inclined to buy an electric vehicle probably just have made up their mind that they want to buy an electric vehicle.”
Charger availability and the rate at which replacement vehicles are purchased are likely larger factors in overall adoption rates, she said.
In an attempt to fill gaps in charging infrastructure, Texas is investing $400 million to expand statewide charger access through the five-year Electric Vehicle Charging Plan that was ed in September 2023.
There are more than 140,000 EVs on the road in Dallas-Fort Worth, according to registration data from DFW Clean Cities. Most are Tesla Model Ys and Tesla Model 3s, both of which are currently eligible for federal tax credits.
A greater number of leased EVs are eligible for the credits, since income and domestic content requirements don’t apply, so that sector may see greater impact, Clark pointed out.
But Prochazka of the Electrification Coalition points to an analysis from Princeton University’s ZERO Lab. The data estimates the budget bill would, among having other environmental and economic impacts, reduce annual EV sales by roughly 40% in 2030. That’s if federal emissions regulations are cut, too.
“Absolutely these credits are meaningful from the standpoint of influencing consumer final purchase decisions,” Prochazka said.
The bill also includes a $250 annual tax for EV owners, intended to make up for the lack of gas taxes paid by non-EV drivers, which helps fund transportation infrastructure.
But the fee would equal about three times what most drivers pay in gas taxes, according to an analysis by Consumer Reports.
The fees included in the House-ed reconciliation bill were absent from recommendations by several Senate committees, but could appear in the bill that comes out of the Senate Finance Committee, according to Politico.
Texas EV owners began paying $200 a year in additional state registration fees in 2023.
Proponents of the federal tax credits will face an uphill battle to preserving them, but they say EVs aren’t going anywhere.
“You can still confidently buy an EV because at the end of the day, it’s absolutely still going to be a part of the future of the automotive sector,” Prochazka said.
“This is not going away, we are way too far down the line. The question is how fast is the transition going to happen?”