One management group did everything right, made in-season trades to add players that would win playoff games with hat tricks, manipulating the league’s cap rules to build a monster roster for a Stanley Cup push. The other took the most basic concept — keep building around a superstar who just carried you to the NBA Finals — and blew it up to miss the playoffs entirely.
Guess which of the AAC’s teams is more positioned to make a playoff run in 2026?
I’m not getting ahead of myself here, don’t worry. I watched Oklahoma City Sunday night and recognize that even with a gift falling out of the sky here on June 25 in the form of Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the Mavericks won’t be at the Thunder’s level next season or the one after that. The next Golden State-like dynasty is just getting started up the way off of I-35.
But with the Stars bowing out of the playoffs in uncharacteristic fashion, losing four in a row to Edmonton and then suffering a coach-fueled implosion that has GM Jim Nill and owner Tom Gaglardi scrambling to find a coach for next season, the Mavericks have at least caught the Stars in their ability to play into May and maybe late May next season.
Let’s start with the hockey club.
This was going to be a challenging offseason even had the Western Conference finals gone a completely different direction. One thing to understand: The Stars weren’t really good in spite of injuries this season, they were really good because of those injuries this season. Using the NHL’s shaky Long Term Injured Reserve provision after injuries sidelined high-salaried Tyler Seguin and Miro Heiskanen is exactly what allowed Nill to make those trades and give Mikko Rantanen a new home for the next eight years. The Stars had 15 first-round picks on their roster for the playoffs, even if they played just 11 or 12 of them on most nights. That’s a considerable wealth of talent.
Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov and Cody Ceci are among the unrestricted free agents for Dallas. Until they trade salary elsewhere, the Stars can basically afford to keep one of those players.
On top of that, I think the relief some are experiencing as a result of Pete DeBoer’s firing will turn to something else over time. Perhaps not confusion but at least a sense of insecurity, given that the Stars intend to go with a coach unproven in NHL battle. Say what you will about DeBoer and his benching of Jake Oettinger, “unproven” was not an issue with him, not with all those playoff victories that he continued to pile up behind the Dallas bench.
Whether the Oilers win the Final or not, they will be the team to beat in the West, and the Stars will have half a dozen worthy competitors from Los Angeles to Winnipeg to Colorado to Minnesota to St. Louis to Vegas capable of knocking them off in the postseason. The pressure without DeBoer will be of a different kind, but that doesn’t mean it goes away for Oettinger or anyone else. And it doesn’t mean that Nill finds the right man to get Dallas back to the Western Conference finals.
As for the Mavericks, go back to that fateful trade at the start of February, the one Mavericks’ fans are still struggling to get past. Now pretend that you got what you wanted from the Lakers without giving anything up. How different does that feel?
I’m not suggesting Flagg will be first-team all-NBA as a rookie. But the basketball world expects him to perform at an awfully high level right away — certainly better than Luka on the defensive end and a good scorer-er that the Mavericks desperately need, especially without Kyrie Irving the first half of the season.
What if by April you have a reasonably healthy Irving and an Anthony Davis who plays 70 games (for the fourth time in his 14-year career) and a Rookie of the Year getting better all the time (Flagg turns 19 in December), and the ing cast of P.J. Washington and Derrick Lively II and Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall that is healthier overall than a year ago? Take a big step down from the Thunder. Can that team compete with Minnesota? With Denver? With the Lakers?
The answer is a resounding maybe. Until the Mavericks brought home a winner with a 1.8% chance at the draft lottery in Chicago (I give all credit to Rolando Blackman, the most positive force on the planet), Dallas was a play-in team in waiting. Luck still has to come the Mavs’ way as we know from the injury history of Davis along with the necessary recovery from Irving. But, on paper, it is not a team I would definitively bet against until they run up against their neighbors across the Red River.
Keep in mind Flagg still has to get drafted. He’s making a visit to Dallas next week, and no one can assure me that Nico Harrison won’t get a look at him and say, “Sorry, defense wins championships, the Mavericks select Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner.”
Pretty certain that won’t happen, but one never knows the future. Ten days ago I didn’t have Pete DeBoer collecting a $4 million unemployment paycheck from the Stars next season, either.
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